Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…
Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness. In
When I see editorials, news flow…
…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by
A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data
We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor. The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the
It’s the credit, stupid!
Turkey’s new GDP series, released last December, has become a constant source of debate, apprehension and incredulity amongst the analyst community. The latest comments coming from Commerzbank
Mystery of the Missing Inflation
Nouriel Robini wrote on this very hot and pertinent topic in a Project Syndicate column, which is worth taking stock. His take? No one knows what the causes of “lowflation” are, so
Chinese Debt: Should we be or not be scared?
Concerns over the Chinese debt-growth nexus appear to have subsided again, which is greatly helping the broader EM environment. China is somehow managing to grow at 6%+ rate (IMF forecast for
Fischer’s lunch with the FT…and links on low rates
Fed Vice–Chair Stan Fischer has had lunch with the FT, which is featured in FT’s August 19-20 weekend issue. Lots of interesting stuff… In the interview, “Fischer agrees with Greenspan, saying
Robots and Jobs…
This “robot and jobs” stuff is getting exceedingly interesting especially for old-fashioned economists such as myself (who only know how to work with macro “identities”). This
US Economy, the laggard?
“The clear message is that the U.S. — the richest nation on Earth, as is frequently proclaimed, although it’s actually not the richest per capita — is increasingly
Mixed findings on lira’s fair value
Lira has depreciated sharply in recent years — by some 25% in nominal terms (against a ‘basket’ that comprises 50% euro and 50% dollar) over the past year or so, and some 50% in