Murat's Musings

Turkey’s Elections: Possibility, Peril or More of the Same?

Source:Bipartisan Policy Center Date:18Jun2018

In this three-part report, the Bipartisan Policy Center of the US looks at the upcoming Turkish elections and come up with recommendations for the US administration. The tone is rather gloomy and

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Bloomberg on investor sentiment turning skittish


This overview piece by Bloomberg’s Istanbul Bureau Chief, B. Harvey, regarding the recent deterioration in investor sentiment toward Turkey is well worth the read, especially for starters.

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Turkey’s Macro Quandary: Politics Meets the Trilemmas


We’ve been absent for a while again, so let us make a return by offering a simple narrative that may help to understand Turkey’s current economic troubles and lira’s constant

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A short macro presentation


I have given a short talk on the Turkish economy, basically suggesting that given the shifting global landscape (i.e. toward slightly tighter money and higher longer term rates) and the rising

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Concluding Statement of the IMF Staff, of the Article IV Mission


The summary of the statement speaks for itself — “…the economy now faces signs of overheating: a positive output gap, inflation well above target, and a wider current account

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Some thoughts on the Turkish saving rate


I just gave a talk at a FODER (Turkish Financial Literacy Foundation) conference, which was the third of its kind (here is the conference link in Turkish). The conference was on Turkey’s

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Two Turkish macro myths, in two graphs


High growth in Turkey – as in last year’s steroid-driven (estimated) 6.5%+ rate – typically comes at a cost in the form of higher “imbalances”, i.e. markedly higher inflation and current account

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BFTB: A maiden post, on 2017’s macro surprises…


My next-door neighbor on this website and long-time friend and collaborator Atilla warned me, rightly so, about my absence here since October (and how it reflects poorly on the seriousness and

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September Trade Deficit: Core imports brake a record, as exports stagnate


Today’s release of September trade data by Turkstat was exactly in line with the preliminary Customs Ministry Data released in early October, with the 12-month rolling deficit rising

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TWF to the rescue?


Bloomberg has recently reported that Turkey’s newly established Sovereign Wealth Fund, or the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF) as it is called, is in talks with foreign lenders, including the

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