Murat's Musings

Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…


Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness.  In

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When I see editorials, news flow…


…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by

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A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data


We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor.  The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the

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It’s the credit, stupid!


Turkey’s new GDP series, released last December, has become a constant source of debate, apprehension and incredulity amongst the analyst community.  The latest comments coming from Commerzbank

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Mystery of the Missing Inflation


Nouriel Robini wrote on this very hot and pertinent topic in a Project Syndicate column, which is worth taking stock. His take? No one knows what the causes of “lowflation” are, so

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Chinese Debt: Should we be or not be scared?


Concerns over the Chinese debt-growth nexus appear to have subsided again, which is greatly helping the broader EM environment. China is somehow managing to grow at 6%+ rate (IMF forecast for

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Fischer’s lunch with the FT…and links on low rates


Fed Vice–Chair Stan Fischer has had lunch with the FT, which is featured in FT’s August 19-20 weekend issue. Lots of interesting stuff… In the interview, “Fischer agrees with Greenspan, saying

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Robots and Jobs…


This “robot and jobs” stuff is getting exceedingly interesting especially for old-fashioned economists such as myself (who only know how to work with macro “identities”).  This

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US Economy, the laggard?


“The clear message is that the U.S. — the richest nation on Earth, as is frequently proclaimed, although it’s actually not the richest per capita — is increasingly

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Mixed findings on lira’s fair value


Lira has depreciated sharply in recent years — by some 25% in nominal terms (against a ‘basket’ that comprises 50% euro and 50% dollar) over the past year or so, and some 50% in

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