Murat's Musings

Two Turkish macro myths, in two graphs

Date:04Jan2018

High growth in Turkey – as in last year’s steroid-driven (estimated) 6.5%+ rate – typically comes at a cost in the form of higher “imbalances”, i.e. markedly higher inflation and current account

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BFTB: A maiden post, on 2017’s macro surprises…

Date:27Dec2017

My next-door neighbor on this website and long-time friend and collaborator Atilla warned me, rightly so, about my absence here since October (and how it reflects poorly on the seriousness and

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September Trade Deficit: Core imports brake a record, as exports stagnate

Date:31Oct2017

Today’s release of September trade data by Turkstat was exactly in line with the preliminary Customs Ministry Data released in early October, with the 12-month rolling deficit rising

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TWF to the rescue?

Date:23Oct2017

Bloomberg has recently reported that Turkey’s newly established Sovereign Wealth Fund, or the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF) as it is called, is in talks with foreign lenders, including the

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Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…

Date:13Oct2017

Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness.  In

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When I see editorials, news flow…

Date:12Oct2017

…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by

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A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data

Date:27Sep2017

We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor.  The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the

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It’s the credit, stupid!

Date:17Sep2017

Turkey’s new GDP series, released last December, has become a constant source of contention, debate and even agony amongst the analyst community.  The latest comments coming from Commerzbank

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Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Date:14Sep2017

Nouriel Robini wrote on this very hot and pertinent topic in a Project Syndicate column, which is worth taking stock. His take? No one knows what the causes of “lowflation” are, so

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Chinese Debt: Should we be or not be scared?

Date:30Aug2017

Concerns over the Chinese debt-growth nexus appear to have subsided again, which is greatly helping the broader EM environment. China is somehow managing to grow at 6%+ rate (IMF forecast for

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