Murat's Musings

Two Turkish macro myths, in two graphs


High growth in Turkey – as in last year’s steroid-driven (estimated) 6.5%+ rate – typically comes at a cost in the form of higher “imbalances”, i.e. markedly higher inflation and current account

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BFTB: A maiden post, on 2017’s macro surprises…


My next-door neighbor on this website and long-time friend and collaborator Atilla warned me, rightly so, about my absence here since October (and how it reflects poorly on the seriousness and

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September Trade Deficit: Core imports brake a record, as exports stagnate


Today’s release of September trade data by Turkstat was exactly in line with the preliminary Customs Ministry Data released in early October, with the 12-month rolling deficit rising

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TWF to the rescue?


Bloomberg has recently reported that Turkey’s newly established Sovereign Wealth Fund, or the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF) as it is called, is in talks with foreign lenders, including the

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Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…


Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness.  In

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When I see editorials, news flow…


…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by

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A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data


We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor.  The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the

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It’s the credit, stupid!


Turkey’s new GDP series, released last December, has become a constant source of contention, debate and even agony amongst the analyst community.  The latest comments coming from Commerzbank

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Mystery of the Missing Inflation


Nouriel Robini wrote on this very hot and pertinent topic in a Project Syndicate column, which is worth taking stock. His take? No one knows what the causes of “lowflation” are, so

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Chinese Debt: Should we be or not be scared?


Concerns over the Chinese debt-growth nexus appear to have subsided again, which is greatly helping the broader EM environment. China is somehow managing to grow at 6%+ rate (IMF forecast for

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