Murat's Musings
A short macro presentation
Date:01Mar2018
I have given a short talk on the Turkish economy, basically suggesting that given the shifting global landscape (i.e. toward slightly tighter money and higher longer term rates) and the rising
Concluding Statement of the IMF Staff, of the Article IV Mission
Date:19Feb2018
The summary of the statement speaks for itself — “…the economy now faces signs of overheating: a positive output gap, inflation well above target, and a wider current account
Some thoughts on the Turkish saving rate
Date:15Jan2018
I just gave a talk at a FODER (Turkish Financial Literacy Foundation) conference, which was the third of its kind (here is the conference link in Turkish). The conference was on Turkey’s
Two Turkish macro myths, in two graphs
Date:04Jan2018
High growth in Turkey – as in last year’s steroid-driven (estimated) 6.5%+ rate – typically comes at a cost in the form of higher “imbalances”, i.e. markedly higher inflation and current account
BFTB: A maiden post, on 2017’s macro surprises…
Date:27Dec2017
My next-door neighbor on this website and long-time friend and collaborator Atilla warned me, rightly so, about my absence here since October (and how it reflects poorly on the seriousness and
September Trade Deficit: Core imports brake a record, as exports stagnate
Date:31Oct2017
Today’s release of September trade data by Turkstat was exactly in line with the preliminary Customs Ministry Data released in early October, with the 12-month rolling deficit rising
TWF to the rescue?
Date:23Oct2017
Bloomberg has recently reported that Turkey’s newly established Sovereign Wealth Fund, or the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF) as it is called, is in talks with foreign lenders, including the
Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…
Date:13Oct2017
Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness. In
When I see editorials, news flow…
Date:12Oct2017
…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by
A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data
Date:27Sep2017
We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor. The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the