Will Erdogan risk an operation in Syria?

Source:al Monitor Date:18Jul2019

Turkey’s political risk will not settle anytime soon.  Trouble with NATO over s-400s could be joined by a new military campaign in Syria.

Retired Gen. Naim Baburoglu, however, said he believes strong US sanctions over Turkey’s S-400 purchase could increase the prospect of a new Turkish incursion into northern Syria.

“If the sanctions are tough, Turkey could say, ‘I have to secure my national interests and national security, and eliminate the threat of terrorism from Syria,’ and mount an operation,” Baburoglu said in an interview.

The corollary of this is that if Trump delays the sanctions, as Erdogan hopes and expects, this could also delay a Turkish operation.

However, if Erdogan were to order a military attack east of the Euphrates, regardless of the risks, this will further undermine the already crisis-ridden Turkish-US relationship.