Turkey’s Nationalist Course
Source:Rand Corporation Date:19Feb2020
This is the RAND Corporation report that stoked coup rumors in Turkey
Turkey remains a polarized country
- Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, democratic and civil rights in Turkey have declined. Constitutional and legal changes are transforming the government from a parliamentarian system into an authoritarian state with a strong executive presidency.
- Erdoğan has played to nationalist, religious, and ethnic tensions to advance his political agenda, but many Turks have deep concerns about the erosion of democracy, economic uncertainty, and the failure to achieve a peace settlement with the Kurds.
Turkey is balancing relations with traditional allies and Eurasian neighbors
- Turkish policy toward Iran and Iraq will often be at odds with U.S. interests.
- The differing priorities of Turkey and the Arab states and formidable obstacles to improved Israeli-Turkish relations will complicate advancement of U.S. regional initiatives.
- Russia and Turkey claim a strategic partnership and do have some convergent interests, but significant points of friction and the potential for conflict remain. Turkey’s influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia is likely to remain limited.
- NATO still plays a central role in Turkey’s national security, but domestic doubts about the Alliance’s commitment and relevance have grown. Turkey will remain willing to work at cross purposes with allies when its shifting national interests dictate.
- Turkey’s relations with the European Union have reached a low point. Progress on migration, travel, counterterrorism, and Cyprus will determine the longevity of the accession process and alternative futures for the relationship.
U.S.-Turkish relations will remain volatile, but a major breach can be avoided
- Turkey and the United States still have some convergent interests, including balancing Russia and Iran, countering terrorism, and promoting stability in the Middle East.
- Turkey still values defense cooperation with the United States. Its armed forces want to work effectively with U.S. counterparts and remain dependent on U.S.-origin military equipment.