WHAT WOULD A POST-ERDOĞAN TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY LOOK LIKE?

Source:War on the Rocks Date:12Dec2021

The author raises many legitimate questions about the flexibility of Turkish foreign policy in the post-Erdogan Era. However, he gets several points wrong. For instance Turks don’t trust Russia more than US. CHP and the Nation Alliance have no deep investment in keeping S-400s  The author ignores how reconciliation with Turkey’s Kurds could help end the war between Turkey and PYD-YPG, thus opening a venue for the normalization of Turko-American relationship. Nevertheless, a very worth effort

 

 

Beyond any doubt, the absence of a reckless, ambitious, and hot-tempered leader will have a positive impact on decision-making in Ankara. Institutions, particularly the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, might have more influence, bringing greater stability and consistency to Ankara’s foreign relations. Turkey’s NATO and E.U. partners would most likely find Erdoğan’s successors more agreeable and easier to communicate with.

But, if Erdoğan is voted out of office, no one in Washington or Brussels should expect Turkey to suddenly turn into a docile and obedient ally. Structural changes in the international environment, broader bureaucratic and ideological trends in Turkey, and new facts on the ground that Erdoğan has created will all limit the potential for “normalization” in post-Erdoğan Turkey.